Quasi ex-ante inflation forecast uncertainty

Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Journal of Economic Literature classific...

The Ex-Ante Aggregation of Opinions under Uncertainty

This paper presents an analysis of the problem of aggregating preference orderings under subjective uncertainty. Individual preferences, or opinions, agree on the ranking of risky prospects, but are quite general because we do not specify the perception of ambiguity or the attitude towards it. A convexity axiom for the ex-ante preference characterizes a (collective) decision rule that can be in...

Ex - ante and ex - post strong correlated

A strong correlated equilibrium is a strategy pro le that is immune to joint deviations. Di erent notions of strong correlated equilibria were de ned in the literature. One major di erence among those de nitions is the stage in which coalitions can plan a joint deviation: before (ex-ante) or after (ex-post) the deviating players receive their part of the correlated pro le. In this paper we prov...

Inflation forecast contracts

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers' remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contra...

The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran